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Intelligence Digest: Geo-politics in the Middle East remains wrapped in smoke-and-mirrors subterfuge


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Intelligence Digest


March , 2012

Subterfuge Deepens


Geo-politics in the Middle East remains wrapped in smoke-and-mirrors subterfuge, apparently created by the Obama Administration. Whether or not the lack of clarity is due to incompetence or design has yet to be determined but the hallmark of the Obama White House concerning foreign policy in general and especially for the Middle East is one of total chaos. It would also seem that Obama’s regional policy strategies for the Middle East are ill-conceived, illogical and in shambles.

Of course, there is a giant form of geo-political chess being played out by the major powers in the Mideast region and the game itself seems rather convoluted. Even so, the nations who’ve always been historically known for their chessman-ship are the key players in the Mideast: Iran and Russia. On the other hand, American presidential administrations have historically been less than adept at geo-political chess, particularly in the Middle East.


In today’s world, the Obama Administration’s attempts to halt Iran’s quest to become a nuclear power continue to come up empty. The Obama White House and State Department continue to believe that diplomacy and negotiations, along with crippling economic sanctions will force Iran to drop its nuclear weapons program. Yet, TEAM Obama has again announced that Iran is no longer working on a nuclear bomb. Say what?


During the March 5, White House summit between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the president and his team, once again asserted the view that Iran had ceased working towards a nuclear weapon. It was and remains a crazy assertion that flies in the face of UN inspector’s reports and conclusions. It also flies in the face of intelligence data gathered by not only Israel, German, French and British intelligence services. It also flies in the face of US intelligence data, too. It’s just that the Obama White House has a “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” mindset when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program.


The President’s agenda seems to dawdle with Iran until that nation finally develops its own nuclear weapons arsenal and then acquiesce to a fait accompli and learn to live with a nuclear Iran. Of course, this conclusion is in direct contrast to Obama’s public statements.

Leading up to the March 5, summit, President Obama gave a speech before AIPAC, an American-Israeli lobbying group. Obama’s speech was full of “campaign rhetoric” that promised full support and protection for Israel. He reiterated unwavering support for Israel at the summit and again afterwards. His words were received privately with great misgiving by the Israeli contingent. The Netanyahu government views Obama as an untrustworthy individual and has serious doubts about Obama’s words of commitment to Israel’s security.

Of course, after the summit, the two leaders engaged in the typical diplomatic protocols of mutual understanding and support, but the Israeli Prime Minister made it known privately that he and his government will trust no outsider to protect Israel. His view: Israel must protect itself and not rely on other nations.

In the days since the summit, our contacts in Washington report that the summit meeting itself had some positive factors. The face-to-face meeting between Obama and Netanyahu was scheduled to last 2 hours but it lasted for 3 hours and focused primarily on the Iranian nuclear dilemma. Also added to the agenda was the question of what to do about Syria.

We understand from our sources that there was some tremendous disagreement between Obama and Netanyahu over Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Obama cited a new US intelligence determination that concluded with the idea that Iran had not and would not build a nuclear weapon, but have all the parts ready to assemble quickly should the need for a nuclear weapon arise. Netanyahu countered with Israeli intelligence data concluding that Iran was on the verge of finishing construction on at least one and maybe as many as 4 to 6 missile warheads.


The two leaders argued over strategy to deal with the Iran situation. Obama let it be known that diplomacy and additional, crippling sanctions must be allowed to continue. Military action by Israel alone would sabotage the diplomacy and result in a world-wide depression and a major war. Unstated by the President was his own conclusion that an independent, unilateral military strike by Israel could become a major threat to Obama’s re-election bid in November.


From what we understand, Obama attempted to dictate new terms to the Israeli leader, demanding that Israel postpone any plans for a unilateral military strike against Iran until 2013. Netanyahu reportedly was firm in flatly rejecting such a demand. Obama then relented to the notion of refraining until after the November election. Once again, Netanyahu flatly refused. Undeterred by the Israeli leader’s determined resoluteness, the President then suggested that Israel at least wait until September or October for diplomatic efforts. Again, Netanyahu refused.


President Obama’s team then suggested that if Netanyahu would wait long enough, the US would take the initiative to launch a joint military campaign against Iran while Israel deal primarily with Syria, Hezbollah and if needed the Palestinians in Gaza. The President suggested that an American military action might come as early as this fall or even this summer if Iran flatly rejected further diplomatic initiatives or continued to stall for time.


With this added wrinkle to the equation, Netanyahu was willing to listen. Even so, Netanyahu let it be known that he was not inclined to wait much longer than May or June to launch military action, with or without U.S. assistance.

The White House response was to then offer a ‘deal.’

If, Israel was bound and determined to strike Iran, Obama’s advisors suggested that the U.S. would be willing to provide an additional 4 aerial refueling tanker planes and additional inventory of highly sophisticated “bunker-buster” bombs, but only if Israel would at least wait until summer. This was not a concrete offer, but rather a negotiating suggestion for compromise.

On this offer, Netanyahu and his delegation were willing to consider and accept, but with a caveat. All deals were off, if Israel got any evidence indicating:


1.Iran was assembling a bomb or bombs
2.Iran launched a pre-emptive attack on Israel
3.Syria attacked Israel
4.Hezbollah attacked Israel
5.Hamas or Gaza Palestinian splinter groups attacked Israel



If such caveats were acceptable to the Obama Administration, then Israel would agree to hold off from an attack on Iran until at least the first of May, possibly into June or July but then a re-assessment would be needed by the two leaders in a face-to-face meeting.

President Obama then proposed a mid-summer summit meeting. Obama indicated he’d be willing to travel to Israel for that next summit but no firm date was set. Again, Netanyahu agreed to that proposal but it remains unclear as to whether the two leaders will be meeting before or after an Israeli military strike on Iran or after military clashes with Syria and or Hezbollah or Hamas.

Within 48 hours after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s return to Israel, the Israeli leader found himself squarely faced with a potential war with Gaza Palestinians and yet Hamas reportedly not engaged in military action. Instead, Hamas was trying to act as peace-maker.

The conflict was initiated by two splinter groups with ties to Iran. More than 200 rockets and short range missiles rained down on southern Israel for four days, starting on Friday and lasting into Monday before a shaky truce took hold Tuesday morning (3/13). Remarkably, Israel restrained from sending in ground troops. Perhaps this was because Hamas was not involved in the fighting and an invasion would have tipped them over into the hostilities, and thus create further headaches and hundreds more missiles launched into Israel.



It also didn’t take long to realize that the perpetrators were Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committee. The PRC was the initial culprit as its leaders were planning a special terror raid into Israel. Israel’s air force launched an air strike killing its leader and his deputy – nullifying the terror plot before it could unfold. In response, Islamic Jihad began its rocket and missile barrage into southern Israel in retaliation.



Behind the scenes, however, Iran was pulling the strings on Islamic Jihad as part of a crafty effort to “test” Israel’s new anti-missile air defenses.



From what can be understood, it seems that Iranian strategists had planned on this becoming a full-blown war if all went well. However, things didn’t go as planned, as is so typical in war.



Iran had not counted on Israel’s new “Iron Dome” anti-missile program to be so effective, particularly against the smaller rockets and missiles. It was thought that Iron Dome would have a much harder time defending against smaller targets. In fact, Iron Dome proved to be quite successful although the Israelis were selective in what they would intercept.



Israeli strategists chose to ignore the small Katyusha rockets, especially since most were landing in unpopulated areas – mostly in the desert. The larger rockets and missiles that were heading towards urban areas were targeted for interception. Initially, Iron Dome knocked out 28 of 31 missiles targeted. Towards the end of the 4 day campaign, there were at least a couple of failed intercepts due to unspecified, technical glitches within the Iron Dome system.


Overall, Iron Dome proved itself to be a very effective defense. This raised eyebrows in Tehran. By Sunday and Monday, Iranian experts were monitoring the situation and trying to evaluate Iron Dome’s weaknesses that could be exploited. They were unable to find any weaknesses that could be exploited. This is the primary reason why Iran called off the campaign. Iranian strategists wanted time to fully evaluate Iron Dome and devise new

tactics or equipment to overcome Iron Dome. The success of Iron Dome most likely postponed the start of major war between Israel and Iran for at least the a short while.

Most military analysts believe that Iran will employ similar, short campaign tests of Iron Dome to probe for weaknesses that could be properly exploited in a full scale war scenario. Therefore, we can expect similar one or two day barrage campaigns as we head into the spring and summer. Meanwhile, Syria and Hezbollah have been instructed to sit tight and wait. Indeed, there were early troop movements suggesting Hezbollah and Syria were just hours away from launching their own campaigns against Israel’s northern region.


There was immense concern about Syria’s movement of WMD missiles as the weekend began. The Pentagon was intensely concerned by developments and maintained close communication with Israel as the weekend progressed, watching Syrian movements with great care and concern. It appeared that Syrian President Assad was about to make good on his threats to attack Israel if foreign troops entered Syria. Last week, several French soldiers were captured by Syrian regime forces. It was a perfect pretext for Assad to act and make good his threats, but Iron Dome success and Iranian orders to Assad stopped that threat.



On the Syrian Front

The Obama Administration, particularly the State Department has been working diligently to shift Russian support away from the Syrian leader and his regime. The shocking genocide being committed by Assad’s forces were beginning to force Russia’s diplomatic position away from unwavering support for Assad and his government.


The Russians remain leery of America’s goals for Syria, anticipating another re-run of Libya. The Russians had thus drawn a line in the sand to protect their loyal client, Syria.

There is international condemnation of the bloody genocide now being committed by Assad and his military. That condemnation has put Russia into an uncomfortable and awkward diplomatic position making Russia look like the “bad guy.”



Russia’s President Putin cannot afford to lose face within the international community, yet he also does not want to lose Syria as a loyal customer and purchaser of Russian military weapons. As a result of this shift in international thinking, the Russians are showing signs of backing away from Assad and would like to find an excuse to do so, yet not jeopardizing their client’s position.



If the Russians back away from Syria, the Chinese will likely follow Russia’s lead and also back away, allowing for a UN Security Council to hammer out some sort of consensus for dealing with Assad including charging him with crimes against humanity.

This is the strategy that Hillary Clinton’s State Department is working to bring about, but getting the Russians to cooperate will still be problematic. We have our doubts.


Intelligence Tidbits


Naval Build Up


2 US Aircraft Carriers – the USS ENTERPRISE and the USS CARL VINSON are headed back to the Middle East and there will now be two carrier groups permanently stationed to the Persian Gulf region. For all practical purposes, two carriers had been continuously working the region together for the past several months but not on a permanent (rotating) basis.


Odds For Israeli Strike this Spring


After the Obama/Netanyahu Summit on March 5, it was reported that the President asked his advisors to rate the odds for Israel’s Prime Minister ordering an independent, unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The consensus among White House advisors was that there was a 70% chance that Netanyahu would order a strike by mid-June or sooner with only a 30% chance that Israel would remain idle.

Obama’s Re-election Concerns


Much of Obama’s concerns about an Israeli military strike stems from worries that such an event would harm the chances for Obama’s re-election. There are concerns that if Israel too matters into its own hands, the President would look weak. It also might hurt his chances among Jewish voters in America if it appeared that Obama was not fully supporting Israel. Thus, election politics is playing a major role in Obama’s Mideast policy.


Saudis Declare “War” on Obama


The Saudis have grown so weary of Obama’s lack of leadership that the Saudi King has put into place a new oil policy that will crank up oil prices to create American voter discontent with the president and trigger a voter backlash against Obama. Saudi King Abdullah is determined to do whatever he can to influence the American election in 2012 to bring about “regime change” in Washington.



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Zechariah 12:3,9:
And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people; And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem.



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