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http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/jan2013/randy116.htm
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Randy (16 Jan 2013)
"Markets/Economy and some other thoughts...."


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For the past 4 years (as an investment advisor) I have advocated using THINGS WITH DIVIDENDS as an apporpriate investment solution to a number of people.

Thus, instead of a GROWTH vehicle.....if there is NO growth....at least there would be a dividend people could count on.

Example: 1 person, $500,000.....objective: Maximize Income with "respectable" principal stability.
Over the last 4 years, the dividend (income) to this person has been around 6.5%--AS expected.

The principal (which one can NOT control) has driftred UP along the way to a high of $530k and a low (18 months ago) of around $ 460k. (Less than a 10% fluctuation......not bad.)

INCREDIBLY.....over the last 18 months....even this "simple" dividend portfolio has come back to $500k and is now at almost $510k.

While I am pleased at that performance....if you would have asked me 18 months ago if the account would get BACK to $500k in the next 12-18 months.....I would have said "I doubt it."

This portfolio IS STILL IN the MARKET.....NOT just bonds...and NOT just stocks.....

My COMMENT: I am AZAMZED that the US market (as well as other International Markets have come roaring back so well in the last 18 months.....considering that NOTHING HAS BEEN FIXED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Geeez!!

So......as I watch and read early 2013 economic articles and watch the markets......the markets seem to think that:
1) There are NO BIG Problems on the near-term horizon...no matter what I THINK !! (ah, the market is ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS OPTIMISTIC!! And, incredibly, that optimism over time has ALWAYS be more right than wrong, even if there are sharp drops along the way. )
2) Apparently.....the markets in Euorpe are acting like "things are getting fixed" over there...at leats for now. (??)
3) People are still concerned that China is "hiding" the "real" economic story. (If so....ONE DAY, that will BLOW UP ON THEM!! Article last week, that Mary Shapiro (former FDIC chariman) was trying to get China to "come clean" with all of the financial schananigans with bogus economic stuff on alot of Chinese stocks that got listed on the US market and then IMPLODED......losing many US investors ALOT of money. (First time I'd heard about that!) My comment: LET THE BUYER BEWARE!! If anyone thought that FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE from a Chinese company wanting to be listed on the US markets could be taken at FACE VALUE.....SHAME ON THEM!!!! Investors deserved to lose money---- IT IS NOT A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD when it comes to "disclosure." DUH!!!!

Why? Look at:
1) Is China's REAL GDP REALLY that high???? I think the numbers are contrived..
2) Look at the Five Doves Post on Monday, again, about Chinese GHOST Cities. IF the GDP # in China INCLUDES THIS COonstruction activity (and I WILL BE IT DOES)... then that is just ONE reason their GDP number is "made up!" This just HAS TO COME to light one day...doesn't it??

Anyway......just venting....

I am AMAZED that "all is well" in the financial markets in light of so much FUNNY ACCOUNTING going on in
1) the US with the Fed buying up so much in US Bonds...and then REBATING the interest BACK to the Treasury
2) The US Debt just going up up up..
3) the US Government NOT DOING ANYTHING about SPENDING!
4) Europe is in a simlar mess.....more debt....more problems....

TICK TOCK.....
The dominoes are ALL LINED UP....

Just waiting for WHAT? to knock them all down?

the Rapture...

TICK TOCK......soon I hope....(I'm TIRED!!)
YFIC,
Randy

PS....... in spite of all this..... I'm having a GREAT start to the New year. Weather in central Florida is ABSOLUTELY PERFECT!!! Feels like March already!! Not even 1 cold snap yet!! Being blessed with some travels in the next 4 weeks..... some work, some personal..... and I am very grateful for all of this.... HOPE is IN THE AIR!!! Even IF there is NO Rapture this year.

And yet...I know that MANY MANY People.......even strong Christians are STILL having tough times....
some financially....
Some, with their health..

And......it just doesn't seem fair....I know...... but then FAIR does NOT exist in THIS world...I know that.

But why them.....why not me?? How did I get lucky enough to MISS the worst of these things? I don't have the answer to that.....but all I can do is count my blessings each and every day...

My neighbor and best friend is STILL trying to recover from Acute Leukemia from way back last April. Now, after TWO bone marrow transplants.....lots of chemo....etc, etc. etc. things still look more than a little bleak. ($4 Million dollars later on the medical costs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
I'd like the Rapture just so HE and his family don't have to continue this horrible recovery process..IF there even is one !! ??

Anyway..... in spite of all the agony out there......for Christians and non-Christians.... life here...goes on..... All I can do is the best I can.... leaning on God every day....every week...every month...... until He Returns for us, or calls me home.

IF the Rapture isn't soon.......it concerns me that one day my own health will become an over -challenge..... Personally, I am hoping for the Rapture before then.... tick tock.




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Zechariah 12:3,9:
And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people; And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem.


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