BLUNDERERS OF REAL POLITIC

If evolution is right and we came from animals, it must said that Dr. Beyene and Hailu have become corrupt animals from too much contemplation. As for the rest of the opposition, our CUD-UEDF leadership knows best approach got us on the begging mode.

Meles told us clearly on his BBC interview that he is afraid of an insurrection that could put him out of business and under the mercy of the fade up electorate. Some one in ER forum have brushed the issue about non violent movement and sacrifice. Why did the peaceful but vocal Addis Ababa University students demonstration forced the clever and witty dogs of EPRDF to bark nervously INTERWAHME? Peaceful struggle according some might meant legal for tactful reasons, but in reality you have to show it’s only meant nonviolent. In critical junctures, some people have to die protesting, making hunger strike, and boycotting to block and reroute EPRDF direction. At minimum, EPDRF’s nerve should have been racked weekly to convince Meles that something big is cooking. I am convinced that Meles was only worried about
1. how a peaceful struggle would lead to local popular uprising
2. diasporas pressuring their host governments on blockade of direct aid to the
government and on garnering support for opposition.
3. opposition readiness to make sacrifice and stand their ground.
The opposition is filled with personalities that have a history of evading sacrifice. There were big doubts among many about their preparation to make clear, succinct and unequivocal stands after the manipulation of investigation by EPDRF dependent NEBE.
The analogy of the election is as follows:
You get robbed, beg for your belonging, shouted robbery, get punched, got some attention and help but finally you the victim suggested to share what you own under a simple intimidation.
What does this tell us about the Doctors? Their desire to gain some leverage outweighs their intellect to prepare the condition and environment to negotiate a working formula. Why should EPDRF share power if the opposition is begging? The opposition should have made a balanced illustration of it’s capabilities without pushing EPRDF to unleash all it’s German Shepard’s. No pain no gain.
Under Emperor Menilik, Tona of Wolayeta was subjugated after a harsh and brute war that lasted very long. After capture, Tona was reassigned as the governer of Wolayeta. On the imperial gatherings Tona heard how Jote Worke of Wolega had to bribe Menilik not to attack him and to demonstrate his readiness to be ruled. Their status under the Emperor was never the equal even though they have the same rank.
The ER moderator was right condemning the first joint proposal. You only make a proposal to form a unity government under the circumstances where
1. the incumbent is in reconciliation but not in prevention mode
2. the timing sends a message that the opposition is trembling under the 10 days limit
set by Meles.
3. There is a sense of evasion of responsibility for what is going to happen after final
release of election result that is not expected from a mature opposition as Mamo is
trying to call it
4. Why did they not think this is a white flag for EPDRF semantically? Does these
doctors undermine the intelligence of EPDRF. After all Meles is the ruler.


DISHONOR TO PRAGMATISM

Politics can be a dirty business. How dirty should it get? As much as I deplore to quote dictators, Mengistu would have said of the first Proposal “They took off their trousers with it” and we the supporters could have excused it with faulty belt and work towards a remedy.
Idi Amin would have said of UEDF mantra “now they are taking off their undergarment with multiple alternative after EPDRF refused the deal”. As much as I hate to say it, the whole election fiasco is over when UEDF begged for the second time. The legitimacy and the recognition of opposition was solely based on the refusal to accept the outcome of election and unapparent fraud investigation as well as the expectation of reaction from the opposition. I am ashamed to have supported UEDF leaders but still proud of its program.

Sincere Congratulation to Gebreselassie Zemariame and Meles
You have your cake (international legitimacy through rugged election) and eat it too(No big headache after your crime and killings).

prologue and analysis of election psychological, Media and cyber war for further discussion.
EPDRF side
Good Job
-Melese cheating the illegality of peaceful demonstration on BBC interview
-Bereket Simone and Paulos Yrgaw screech Interwaheme and portraying Diaspora as
hate mongger
-Mulugeta confusing Diaspora and some diplomatic circle pre-election call by Negede
Gobeze for Boycott with the expected and feared peaceful struggle after the final
release of election result and associating all that to Negede’s history. Crying wolf on
blockade of direct aid to EPDRF coffer by pretending its a stoppage of aid altogether.
-Seifeselassie Sibhatu defense on EPDRF to go in it by itself
Bad job
-Dagnachew effort to dispirit and demoralize Diaspora
-Mulugeta effort to paint Diasporas as Derg remenants
-Seifeselassie Sibhatu defense of the election process
-Melese inability to fake insensitivity to killings of students on BBC interview
opposition
Worst job
AigaForum and habasha.net inaccessibility to non EPDRF members
anything Gerremenamen does
Opposition side
Good job
-Coverage of Ethios at home and subsequently diasporas protesting
-Opposition leaders argument and mature dealings with all the process until presenting the so called proposal
-ER and ETHIOMEDIA accessibility to all
-Mamo proposal to use Article 39 against EPDRF
-Dr. Berhanu open letter and previous CUD/UEDF press release
Bad Job
-Hailu shawel BBC interview
-non savvy opposition dealing to attract international support
-First proposal
Worst Job
UEDF alternative

On the Neutral side
Good Job
-Asegedech Meckonen letter to PM and opposition
-Yilmas dislike to UEDF letter

Mr. Yilma (who ever you in real life, I think you are EPDRF think-thank) you are the genius who knew what really went on and whom Mamo want to be. As much as I like Mamo and strongly identify with most of his believe he should have known that it is over.

VJ,

All I am telling you is that you have misread the proposal. No where does the proposal ask for power sharing or for forming a power sharing government. It is asking for a power sharing interim government that prepares us for a re-vote? If you have carefully read the last two press releases and even Lidetu’s interview you would see that the opposition is standing firm on the vote rigging issues and its determination not to allow EPRDF legitimize the vote it has stolen.

Unless you know more than what we know from your contacts with UEDF, I do not think the language in the Proposal supports your analysis.

I believe you have misread me when I said the opposition should take Article 39 modify it and use it against Meles. What I meant by that is to adopt a modified version of 39, while addressing all national and nationality questions. This is consistet with what I have been saying for so long. I agree with you Yilma is EPRDF man, a bit more seasoned than Ethiopian and Gebremenamen.

But let us give the proposal a chance before we make conclusions. I still think it is an excellent proposal.

Ankasa Doro

Mamo,
For the umpteth time - I am not EPRDF. If I were I will say so. I agree with VJ, I don't realy belive your true heart is with the opposition either, I think you have other motives - you are after major disrpution in the country. Accepting the "unity" proposal expose you for who you are. I do see VJ as real person being himself. As for Yelma, I agree with you gentlman he is probably politburo member of EPRDF, but he is smart enought understand what we are discussing, and unless he is EVIL he will pass the message to his friends - and tell them most of us realy care about getting our country better - not necesrily on a weach hunt to get them.

Email: mamo@yahoo.com

Ethiopian,

Where did VJ say I am not with the opposition. My record is he called you goof or imature.

Ankasa Doro

MamoMania
A power sharing government, interim government that prepares them for a re-vote or next election is hair branding or syntax problem? Any call to EPRDF from the opposition will show that they are mercilessly defecating on their pants to keep insisting for the stolen vote and the non-transparency of the investigation.
I do not think we need to see into language of the proposal. The uncalled for act of begging is the basis for my analysis. Forgive the overkill but I hope you know that war is politics with violence while pragmatism on the other hand means war with out violence based on the knowledge of what is possible and what is not. Real politic is utilizing any technique such assertion, polemics, character assassination, defamation, propaganda, demoralizing, diplomacy, accusation, incrimination and so on to get you to that end. Beyene Petros and Hailu Araya had already said that they had responded to Meles on so called intimidating meeting during their VOA interview explaining that they will work within the process legally to pursue their case which was a mature and cornering move. Dude, I am telling you that the opposition undressed itself from the only garment it was left with(a legitimate grievance) and calling for reconciliation without Meles going into that phase first. Even when accepting any reconciliation they should keep a “KOSSO FACE” and keep crying “ unfairness”. The sacrifice of University students should have been used as the ticket to future justice. Are you refusing to admit that Meles could now say “they are trying to share power with a legitimate government that is elected democratically”. Read Seifeselassie Sibhatu's defense on EPDRF to go in it by itself posted by Gebremenamen. Are you in denial to see that Meles can now change the argument successfully into a legitimate government visa vive power sharing and put the naked opposition in their corner. He might throw them few inconsequential cabinet post or house committee eventually. The only important thing is what the atmosphere is going to be like for Meles. Even Mengistu the killer started to negotiate with EPDRF when he saw WPE power slipping away from his hand. I am convinced now that the next election most likely belong to Meles as well, since he is in a position to negotiate the future structure of NEBE. That is why I strongly agree with Yilma’s word “Pallbearer” to mark the end. What ever you say about Article 39.
Go back to work Mamo it is over

VJ,

Do you know something we do not know from your close contact with the leaders of UEDF or is your analysis nased on what you have read in the proposal. What if your reading of the resolve of the opposition is wrong?

Keep you cool my friend. You can not be objective and rational when you are this emotional. Ethiopia needs you to be sober and reflective. Ethiopian politics has crssed a point of no return on May 15. There is nothing that the opposition or Meles can do to turn the clock back. It is in such time of confusion that sober mindes are needed. You all seem to abandon the opposition at a critical time than to encourage it and stand by it. More improtantly you seem to support the misinformation by the government and its footsoldiers in the US and Canda that to throw light into the confusion.

Mamo Qilo

Selam VJ, Ethiopian and Mamo

VJ and Ethiopian,

I want you to know that I am not a member of any politburo and/or I do not do think thanking for EPRDF. I am just an ordinary guy who expresses his views as I see them. Time permitting, I am immensely interested in civil deliberations even with those with whom I have serious differences of opinions. I also believe that individuals can reciprocate respect and cherish friendship regardless of party identification or ideological underpinnings. I don’t like name calling; to me it is a reflection of weak mind, which fogs productive deliberations. It is with that spirit I come to this forum- some weeks more often than others.

Unexpected turns and twists plagued our conversations in the last few days. I want to share further my best guesses, understandings even my perceptions regarding the UEDF “spearheaded’ transitional govt.

Over the last few days, what UEDF and “CUD” did was to reincarnate a very divisive issue. If you recall, transitional government in post election Ethiopia was the principal agenda at UEDF second conference in the US. Disagreements that ensued at this conference provided the genesis to form CUD. You may remember that Ato. Lidetu Ayalew was literally ejected from the second UEDF conference because his opposition to this issue. You may even have read the statement issued by UEDF against Ato. Showels and Ato. Lidetu’s parties.

CUD went to the election believing that it can win and for a government where as UEDF participated in the election to win and then dissolve its own government in favor of forming another transitional government. As some of the preliminary results indicated CUD scored stunning victory and UEDF faltered. In fact what saved UEDF from an embarrassing loss was the strength of Dr. Merara and Dr. Beyene in their respective election zone. Metropolis Addis rejected UEDF the same way it did to EPRDF.

What is so fascinating to me is the timing of the proposal. A few days earlier, Mr. Clarke “brokered” another “code of conduct” agreement that was designed to “provide” the opposition some kind of excuse to back pedal from the current impasse and accept the election outcome “gracefully”. Sensing disarray within the opposition, the PM unleashed a barrage of statement through his information minister undermining the very diplomat that “brokered” the deal. You know the rest. Mr. Clarke, the resident “peacemaker” and diplomat representing several donor nations run for cover; that was the indication tough days were to come.

In my opinion, the only political personality that would benefit from the current saga is the PM. He has been accusing the opposition as “power-mongers” who are “determined to change government” without regard to “the rule of law” using “election controversy as pre text” to “replace duly elected government”. The two major opposition forces stayed on message asking for fair and transparent count of votes despite Western Powers MIA status.

And then D-Day for the PM- a political tornado touched down. They played it into his vortex. The transitional government proposal validated his allegations against the opposition and his claim of winning majority votes. The fat lady sang, and it is over!

Furthermore, this proposal would probably create a very serious rift within the opposition camp. UEDF may be the first casualty. It seems to me that Dr. Merara and Dr. Beyene constitute the back bone of the UEDF alliance. Both, ironically, enjoy the peaceful “warrior” role and earned a great deal of respect for their contributions. Their association with UEDF would be rocky, to the say the least, because of radicals in the alliance such Meison and EPRP.

I also think that CUD will withdraw its support for the proposal. ER unfairly singled out Dr. Brehanu as the lone culprit, which I hope Moderator retracts it. He is too smart to make that kind of mistake.

Mamo,

Naturally, I would want you to see things the way I see them. I am afraid there is a lot of “wishful- thinking” on your part on this subject. Regardless, I will continue to enjoy your takes and inputs.

VJ. I followed your postings; I am impressed with your civility and dispassionate reasoning.

Ethiopia, I don’t doubt your sincerity. I admire your determination to express your views as you see it even when attacked by others. Just to make a friendly remark, if I may, don’t get emotional. Stay stronger!

As always, With Love!