In my opinion what matters the most is what EPRDF would do in the next five to ten weeks. Remember what happens depends not only on what EPRDF wants and/or does, but also on the actions the opposition may take. The actions of the opposition have a potential to throw a monkey wrench and perturb EPRDF's political equation.

The next five to ten weeks:

First, it appears that ENEB is going to verify and justify EPRDF's blatant and shameful robbery of the people's vote. No doubt that the opposition is likely call a peaceful rally and take its supporters to the streets of Ethiopia in all corners of the country, probably barring Tigray. This creates a terrifying prospect to EPRDF. EPRDF may kill 100 people, but it cannot kill 3 million people. Such a big peaceful rally will have a potential to crack EPRDF into two. Meles and Bereket may wish to use the state machinery to stay in power and may order the agazi army to shoot to kill demonstrators. But for others EPRDF operators self-preservation would kick in and force them to object the use of harsh measures. Meles as a person and Meles as a leader stands to lose in such a scenario.

Second, A more likely outcome would probably be a sort of shared power, probably with Meles out of the scene. I see a scenario whereby someone like Seyoum Mesfin taking the helm in a joint government for two years or for a shorter period until a new election is organized.

Third, If Meles survives this period he would be a completely different person. He would have lost all the support he has at the international front. He would no longer be the poster child of Tony and Bush. With that gone and with the obvious rejection he has faced from all walks of Ethiopia, he would be crippled. He would lose all the pretense of legitimacy both inside and outside of the country. This would mean he would be more brutal than he has been to stay in power.

Fourth, if we see life after ten weeks, it would be very interesting to witness the realignment of the coalitions both within and across EPRDF and CUD/UEDF. A wounded Meles would no longer be able to command his wishes outside of TPLF. OPDO will assert its interest and TPLF will no longer be in the driver’s seats of all regional political machineries.

If the coalition of CUD/UEDF has a good understanding of this and packages its program and actions in such a way to maximize the crack between EPRDF, it has the opportunity to render Meles lifeless in a short period. Meles is doing every thing in his power to crack CUD/UEDF. CUD and UEDF needs to actively do the same to EPRDF. Your policy should have a two-prong approach. First is to unite and maximize your support. The second prong should target to weaken and break your opponents.

Mamo Qilo

Hey Mamo,
Welcome back! Mark my word Meles will adjust himself to the new reality and start to work with the opposition. After all, this is a guy who morphed from Albanian communism and heavy ethnic mindset to liberal democracy and federalism. He is very good in maneuvering political circumstances. Read TPLF history! I want to know how ready and determined the opposition is to hold their ground and continue the pressure on Meles by exposing his illegal rule. The opposition should focus for some time detailing the methods used by Meles to rig vote, intimidate candidates and voters as well as the brute force he exercised. His robbery should be well publicized. After sufficient and convincing international recognition the opposition should know when to resume work and take their seats in the parliament. The appropriate time according to my thinking is when Meles starts to give compromising positions and either symbolical or preferably meaningful concessions. Like changing the new law that states “no party that has less than 50 % of the seats can have an agenda.” There should be no violence because it goes against what the opposition are struggling for. They should take every little compromise offered by him and work towards the next election. There are two things here
- Even though we know what Meles did, rigging election result is a very contentious issue. Donald Levin recently said “look what happened in Florida only because of three counties, imagine what could happen if 185 counties are involved (equivalent to what is contested in Ethiopia)”. The only way to avoid the deliberate mess is by being organized and prepared to address all known issues for the next election. We might need to help the opposition hire consultants or something.
-The opposition should be able to demonstrate that Meles would be treated well with respect if and when he leaves power someday. You can find out how previous leaders who stepped out of office voluntarily in Mozambique and Zambia etc are mistreated. Even negotiating to the degree that he can keep his loot and furnishing him with some kind of
immunity from any prosecution so forth.
-The current military must be galvanized to be feel as and be regarded as a permanent security and major player in defense of the country. We need their strength to defend ourselves from another Eritrean aggression.
Thus some work is needed for a smooth transfer of power oneday.

Brother VJ,

I am not sure if Meles can readily wiggle him self out of his "miscalculation." For a change the opposition seems to play teir hands right. I like their latest prese release. Very well written and politically very savy. My barometer is Gebreselassie Zemariam. He seems to be desperate and out of control. Ibrahim is also showing a sign of desperation. Not good time for PM Meles.

I agree that Meles was able and willing to transform himself from an Albanian communist, to tribal bandit and to champion of federalism of a tribal sort. True he is very good in maneuvering political circumstances, but not all circumstances avail theselves to be used. I feel that the opposition is ready and bold to hold its ground. They know the people are behind them. If this opposition fails to rise then hardliners will come to the scene and capitalize on the galvanized mass.

I do not think the people are ready to allow Meles to steal its voice. Ethiopia has passed a point of no return. The opposition has won and it should not settle for less. To do otherwise is to betray the people.

Mamo Qilo

Mamo Qilo and VJ,

I agree whatever happens in the next five to ten weeks has a major impact in the future of our country. Backed by its election board,security apparatus,and miltiary, Woyane will not be giving power to the opposition.That is really scary.

On the other hand, the opposition groups will not be just looking what Woyane has to do. Definetly,they will take a peaceful action. One of this could be Work Strike all over the country. Another action would be major mass demonstrations all over the country. I support to do the Work Strike first and then perform mass demonstrations. By doing a collaborated Stike,people stay in their house and at least the number of killings by Woyane could be minimized.The so called international community can see how Ethiopians are angry on Woyane and partially by their decision.They can pressure for re-election on the 299 constituencies.

All this couldn't be achieved if the oppostion groups(CUD and UDEF)are not united. As to me so far they are not united as they should. I have witnessed that on different occassions. Their joint statement against the election result is encouraging. Right now, I can tell you that the Ethiopian people are watching carefully each decisions taken by the leadership of both oppostion groups.When they are united, they can use effeciently their resouces(manpower,material,finance) against Woyane who control the government. I hope the leadership have learned enough from their mistakes.We as supporters of the opposition groups should go one step ahead and encourage them when they do good and criticize them when they do bad.

Nestanet

Email: ymoges@msn.com

City: Atlanta

Netsanet
you know why CUD & UEDF are not uniting ultimately? the UEDF member parties like EPRP are not allowed to participate in the election because EPRDF did not allow. if they do it now meles will start saying parties which are not allowed are penetrated to ethiopia and will block totally

Email: agegnehub@yahoo.com

City: A.A

Mustefa,

I am not advocating for the merging of the two political groups.There are many things they can do together while they still keep their entities. Personally, if they unite and become one party or front ,I would be the first one to support it. But if they can't, they can at least do the following together:

1.Mobilize the public against Woyane in a peaceful demonstration,strike,etc
2.Discuss and take the same political stand.
3.Raise funds together for their political activity and to those people that died,injured,and get arrested during the peaceful demonstration
4.Organize oppostion support groups all over the world.

That is the unity I am talking about right now. Eventually if they work out their differences and merge to one organization or party, the Ethiopian people will be more than happy to take them as their savior. I hope that will happen.

You also mentioned some of the parties in UEDF are not allowed to work freely in the country. Right now UEDF is working with less than 50% of its members in the country.That is why Woyane outlawed strong oppostion groups like EPRP.

Nestanet

Email: ymoges@msn.com

City: Atlanta

Aster/H,

I totally agree with you. That was why I have been writing so many messages advising CUD and UEDF to take confidency building measures to assure the international community, particularly on the Article 39 and Eritrea issues. Those are the two issues that the interational community fear the most. I am fully cognizant of the importance of the ferengi. Leave alone a poor country such as Ethiopia, Russia includes the EU and the US in it internal political calculus.

Mamo Qilo

Aster,

By the way, I am not an EPRP veteran.But I am one of those who has been watching closely the political movement in Ethiopia since the student movement of the 1960's. I haven't seen any political organization heroic, strong, and purely Ethiopian as EPRP.

As to the red terror, I think you forgot that EPRP was a victim.If anything happened, EPRP might have attempted to protect itself. Go back to history and check. Even Woyane was trying to show victims of red terror on ETV to get political gain.Are you sure the "yeabioyt tibeka". were "Miskin"? Are you sure they were free of blood?

You also mentioned MEISON AND ICHAT inline with EPRP. I think you need to have precise information before you give such comments. Did you know that MEISON and EPRP were on different sides during red terror time? For your information MEISON was with the Dergue and EPRP with the people.

Netsanet

City: Atlanta

Aster,

Once again, I want to assure you that EPRP stood and still standing for the people. EPRP is against any dictatorship and works hard to bring democracy in our country.EPRP members have been arrested,tortured, and slaughtered for this very cause.They will continue to do so to bring democracy, peace, and prosperity for our country.

By the way you mentioned, EPRP was mauevered by the EPLF.You make me laugh. I can see from your statement that either you don't know the history or don't want to know it. Do you know that EPLF was against EPRP? Do you know that when the first troops from EPRP entered through Eritera, EPLF hold them as a hostage for more than two years? To this date EPRP and EPLF has never been friends and will never be friends in the future. The same holds ture for TPLF. Do you know that EPRP fought TPLF in Tigray for several times since EPRP knows Woyane Agenda in advance? Do you know that EPRP met TPLF more than eight times before even they occupy Tigray? Anyway, I want to assure you that EPRP is not an organization that can easily be manuevered by anyone. It will always struggle for the truth and freedom.Had it not been for the truth, it could have worked easily with the Dergue and now with Woyane.

Having said that, let me say few words about the killings you mentioned.As you might remember, many ethiopians died by the Red Terror of Dergue.EPRP members were the number one victim.By that time poor EPRP has no choice but to protect itself from such mass murder.Under such circumstances, you will be left with no choice but protect yourself from dictators.If anything happened, it was done to protect itself.I am not saying this was right though. If I am not mistaken the party has apologized for this during its 25th anniversary.

Right now I can tell you that there are three groups of enemies for EPRP. The first group are those people who support the feudal system. They accuse EPRP for bringing the social reform in Ethiopia. The second group are those who participated in the red terror such as Dergue and Meison. The third group are those who are against the unity of the country such as Woyane, OLF, and EPLF,etc. I hope you are not from one of these.


NETSANET:

Netsanet and Aster

Netsanet,

You wrote “EPRP is against any dictatorship and works hard to bring democracy in our country.” I think that is a very liberal stretch of facts. EPRP was (is) a classic Leninist/Maoist organization that had no value for democratic participation. Unfortunately, it is this denial of the past that is still holding it back in the gutter. The best EPRP can/should do is learn from its true-past and move into the future.Che Guevera days are gone for ever, and it has a lot of learning to do, I suppose.

Aster,

I think you are wrong to compare EPRP with Derg, and Negede. I find it really hard to believe that EPRP did some of the allegations you made.

With Love!

Yilma,

I agree EPRP was a Marxist Leninst party as many of the political parties of that time (60's and 70's).You might remember that was the fashion by then. Now, the world has changed and so does EPRP.I am not sure when but it has changed its political programme.

As far as being against any dictatorship, EPRP has always been consistent for freedom.Right now, it is actively working in a democractic way being in UEDF. I have never heard any negative comments about EPRP from the leadership of UEDF.

NESTANET

Thanks Netsanet

I would not be sure about the last sentence thoug.

Yilma,

Can you share us if any?

Nestanet

I see a group mentality here One Ethiopia, One identity, One mind set, and full of vengeance.
What if people refuse to join the so called crippling demostartion tactics you dream, what if people you assume for granted refuse to join in the mayham you long for. What if the poor and starving Ethiopians opt for peace and patience. Will you recant you mendacity after the next five to ten weeks then?


Nomad for peacful and patient Ethiopia

I see a group mentality here: One Ethiopia, One identity, One mind set, and full of vengeance.
What if people refuse to join the so called crippling demostartion tactics you dream, what if people you assume for granted refuse to join in the mayhem you long for. What if the poor and starving Ethiopians opt for peace and patience. Will you recant your mendacity then?

Nomad for peacful and patient Ethiopia; My Home country which has so many difficult calamities against it. To mention a few the horrors of AIDs, perpertual starvation, endless wars, and worst of all hate mongers.

if epredf claim victory. the peoppel will rise up
their will be war .and the peoppel will win and destroy all Epredf.

Email: solomon@yahoo.com

Nestsi:
My heart goes out with you. I visualise you as a poor very poor soul staggering to cover up lies, pile of lies. I belong to that generation and I was a member of EPRP at a top level. I am telling you an insider story. If you still think EPRP was/is a "democrat", that is your privilege. You can even believe EPRP didn't kill all those cream of the creams, doctors, professors, highly learnt scholars etc. You can even believe EPRP didn't shoot a single bullet. No earthly power can stop you from fooling yourself. The story I told you is very authentic. It is not a hearsay. It is a first hand information. The difference between EPRP and Derg is by the number of people they killed. Derg killed 5, 6 or maybe 10 times more than what EPRP killed. The similarity between them is that they don't accomodate different opinion and believe in eliminating their "ENEMIES". Both were lawless genocidal thugs. BTW, EPRP at present does NOT exist. It is the ex members that pretend as though it exists. The same holds true with MEISON and all other garbages.

Email: astuka@yahoo.com

City: Addis

Hagere Ethiopia,

You are a psychologically affected moron. Yes, you are Professor Waka, Aster, Hiwot and Goitom. Go back and look at all your postings. First you post, followed by Prof Waka, then Hiwot, then Goiom, then Aster. All the other characters do is worship you, suport you unconditionally and attack anybody that oppose you on any topic. For example on this thred, you posted as Hager (at 3:50am), followed by Professor Waka (at 3:57am), followed by Hiwot (at 4:04 am)and Goitom (at 4:11am) Can't you at least change your pattern? Many times you have logged in as one and signed it of as another. For example the by name reads Hiwot or Goitom or Waka and the signature at the bottom read Hagere. Mr. Hagere, grop up.

Mamo Qilo

Aster,

I can see from your posts that you seriously hate EPRP. If you remember from my previous post, I indicated the three major groups of enemies of EPRP;namely,pro-feudal system,the Dergs,Woyane and OLF. Each of these groups have their own reason for hating EPRP.But EPRP stood for the people.Those who belong to these groups will do everything they can to paint bad names on EPRP.For these groups whatever EPRP does is negative. I am not sure where you belong. My poor instinct tell me that you are one of them. BE HONEST. I HATE DERG FOR EXAMPLE. COME ON, ASTER....

Believe it or not amid all these baseless allegations, EPRP is getting stronger and stronger everyday.Now, EPRP is actively participating within UEDF to bring democracy in our country.

I believe, Aster ,you might need more information about the current situation of EPRP. Visit their web site on http://www.eprp.com or visit the radio station
at www.finote.org

Nestanet

Don Quixote,

Thank you for figuring out the pattern. You must be smart. Now, I know. Anyway, all these people were the same people. They wanted to control the discussion.

Nestanet

Netsanet:
It is NOT a question of liking or hating EPRP. It is NOT at all. You are way way off the mark. If you excuse me, what you said is bluntly spoken very stupid and ****tttttttttttt. I told you what EPRP did when it was active in the 1970s. I told you how many doctors, professors, highly learnt scholars and ordinary citizens were brutally executed and slughtered in a broad day light by EPRP. I told you about the 16 years old disabled boy hanged by EPRP scoundrels in the school compound. I told you about Dr. Mekonnen Shegene who was executed in a broad day light by EPRP mercenary thugs. I tried to convince you that EPRP was full of lawless genocidal thugs. I think I made a hard exercise to let you see the truth full face. After all these effort of mine, you come and say, "You hate EPRP". This is utterly nonsense. This is totally rubbish. It exposes what type of silly woman/girl you are. It is NOT a question of liking or hating. What I hate in life is hate itself. I have never ever passed a judgment on the basis of personal likes or dislikes. You are rather MADLY in love with EPRP and anyone who tells you the truth about EPRP is one who hates EPRP. huh, it is very sickening! I have been following you and reading your comments. I liked many of them. This time around you have clearly goofed. Don't rush to unwarranted conclusion. I told you about EPRP and its criminal past. If you think I have lied or exaggerated, just say it is not true or it is exaggerated. Try to argue with logic and try to reason out. Please try to make your own independent verification that what I told you about EPRP is 101% true. It is rather the tip of the ice berg. If one tells you all the criminal records of EPRP you may dare to say it is comparable to Mussolini's attrocities. Let me tell you some of the most outrageous crimes of EPRP. Dr. Getachew Maru, who was a CC member of EPRP, was killed by EPRP and after they killed him they did put his dead body in an old sack and dumped his body in one of the garbage corners of Addis Ababa. Birhanemeskel Reda narrowly escaped imprisonment and a subsequent brutal murder by EPRP. I told you also about the poor "setegna adari" slaughtered by EPRP. I told you also about the thousands of EPRP members executed and slaughtered being branded as "anja". What else do you want to hear? Netsi, keep an open mind. Don't close up. Your brain is wonder of wonders and use it excellently. Don't have a faith type allegiance to any political group. Finally, I want to tell you EPRP is a piece of ****. Bye for now.

Email: astuka@yahoo.com

City: Addis

Aster,
You wrote

"If you think I have lied or exaggerated, just say it is not true or it is exaggerated."

I think you have LIED OR EXAGGERATED the fact.

How dare you try to compare EPRP with Mussoloni or Derg? If you go back to my previous post, I admitted EPRP made some mistakes and it has already publicly appologized. I have also indicated that if anything was done by EPRP, it was to protect itself.Being the first political organization in the country, you can imagine how hard it would be to to protect its members from the evil acts of DERG AND MEISON.The party has learned a whole lot from all these.

Now, it is a different party and it wants to move on. It forgives those who committed crime on it. Take a look to the following link which might be helpful.

http://www.ethiox.com/press/on_reconciliation1.pdf

Nestanet

Netsanet and Aster,

You guys are engaged in a useless discussion. Why don't you do this off line. Get married and carry this kind of discussion over dinner table. TPLF is looting Ethiopia and killing innocent people, you guy argue about EPRP. What is up with this.

Yegemel Chira aka
Ankasa Doro

Mammo,

You right. Sorry for bothering you.I didn't expect the discussion will go this far.

Case closed as to me.

Nestanet

Thanks Netsanet.

Aster H/M is the moron who goes by the name of Hagere Ethiopia. He is also Progfessor Waka, Hiwot Roberts, and others.

Mamo QIlo

I wish I was smart like you. Good man, keep it up.

Nestanet

Netsanet:
Am I right if I say you started using your aliace "Mamo Qilo" when you are cornered??? Mamo Qilo, you are a piece of ****. I have understood what type of person you are. you don't deserve any response. I am just trying to let others know that you are a psychopathic lier, a MORON and a piece of ****.

Netsi,
Read my reponse and try to reason out. I told you what EPRP did. And yet you DARE to say EPRP showed that much fascistic character and took fascistic acts just to defend its members. Alas, there you goofed. What if Hitler or Stalin or any other dictator say I killed thousands of people just to protect my people or my party members? What if the cold blooded killing machine, Mengistu H/M, says I killed all those in defence of my country, my people and my party members from EPRP, TPLF and Shabia? You condone him??? I want you to read again what I posted before. I have herein below reposted it for your benefit.
Netsanet:
It is NOT a question of liking or hating EPRP. It is NOT at all. You are way way off the mark. If you excuse me, what you said is bluntly spoken very stupid and ****tttttttttttt. I told you what EPRP did when it was active in the 1970s. I told you how many doctors, professors, highly learnt scholars and ordinary citizens were brutally executed and slughtered in a broad day light by EPRP. I told you about the 16 years old disabled boy hanged by EPRP scoundrels in the school compound. I told you about Dr. Mekonnen Shegene who was executed in a broad day light by EPRP mercenary thugs. I tried to convince you that EPRP was full of lawless genocidal thugs. I think I made a hard exercise to let you see the truth full face. After all these effort of mine, you come and say, "You hate EPRP". This is utterly nonsense. This is totally rubbish. It exposes what type of silly woman/girl you are. It is NOT a question of liking or hating. What I hate in life is hate itself. I have never ever passed a judgment on the basis of personal likes or dislikes. You are rather MADLY in love with EPRP and anyone who tells you the truth about EPRP is one who hates EPRP. huh, it is very sickening! I have been following you and reading your comments. I liked many of them. This time around you have clearly goofed. Don't rush to unwarranted conclusion. I told you about EPRP and its criminal past. If you think I have lied or exaggerated, just say it is not true or it is exaggerated. Try to argue with logic and try to reason out. Please try to make your own independent verification that what I told you about EPRP is 101% true. It is rather the tip of the ice berg. If one tells you all the criminal records of EPRP you may dare to say it is comparable to Mussolini's attrocities. Let me tell you some of the most outrageous crimes of EPRP. Dr. Getachew Maru, who was a CC member of EPRP, was killed by EPRP and after they killed him they did put his dead body in an old sack and dumped his body in one of the garbage corners of Addis Ababa. Birhanemeskel Reda narrowly escaped imprisonment and a subsequent brutal murder by EPRP. I told you also about the poor "setegna adari" slaughtered by EPRP. I told you also about the thousands of EPRP members executed and slaughtered being branded as "anja". What else do you want to hear? Netsi, keep an open mind. Don't close up. Your brain is wonder of wonders and use it excellently. Don't have a faith type allegiance to any political group. Finally, I want to tell you EPRP is a piece of ****. Bye for now.
Email: astuka@yahoo.com

City: Addis

Email: astuka@yahoo.com

City: Addis