Ethiopia's political situation has always been too difficult to analyze and predict for a number of reasons. Nonetheless, balance of political forces in the country and the nature of the EPRDF can help come up with the following short term and long-term (five years) "predictions".

Assuming the Woyanne declares itself the winner in the coming two to three weeks, the next five years could prove to be much more destructive and damaging to our country than the past 15 years. There is no question the EPRDF would take measures that would systematically reverse recent political gains made by the people and the opposition. Unless all concerned devise various broad strategies to resist and overcome political and strategic machinations of the regime in question, the well being of the country itself could be irreversibly harmed!.

Here are some of the major actions Meles and his group would take between now and the next five years:

- In the short term, it watches the response of the opposition and the people closely. If it feels threatened by any peaceful political action of either the people or the opposition, it would move to cripple the opposition, including arresting key opposition leaders, particularly those from CUD and HIBRET. It is doubtful it would tolerate full fledged civic resistance by the people, because it knows the end result of it. It quickly cracks down on all forms of opposition that could arise, following the official statement of NEB that EPRDF has won.

- It campaigns that "official results", as declared by NEBE get accepted locally and internationally. In this regard, the international community has made it abundantly clear that "all concerned" parties should accept final NEB rulings. There is no question that the "international community" would echo the EPRDF call and ask "all parties" to accept official determination of NEBE. It is doubtful international observers would make their findings public immediately after NEBE declarations for fear of encouraging dissent and resistance. They probably wait a few more weeks, probably after the opening of the new parliament and the formation of the new government.

- The EPRDF would move to fully and unconditionally accept the rulings of border commission, reversing its earlier rejections, as a price to "rehabilitate " itself in the eyes "donor countries, following its embarrassing behavior in the eyes of its powerful friends around the globe, after the May 15 elections. Normalization talks with a Eritrea would start shortly after that with its predictable outcome.

- there is a possibility the EPRDF government could covertly or overtly send an expeditionary force to Somalia to control Mogadisciou, Somalia, and install Abudulahi Mohammed, ejecting opposition warlords. Officially, the west would oppose or express its weariness at first, but would go along with it if it also dislodges terrorist cells. There are circumstantial reports that this is in its planning stage.

- The EPRDF government would also move to shore up its support base by opening talks with ethnic opposition organizations that it believes have similar political orientation but differed on power arrangements. This would be a critical strategic move on its part, to maintain itself on power, not only in the next five years but beyond. It realizes that unlike in the past 14 years, multinational political forces are getting popularity . The idea is to counterbalance and overcome their popular advantages and divide the electorate into two parts, to use the ethnic card and make ethnic division itself irreversible. A critical realignment of forces would take place that could have serious political consequences for the country. In this regard, direct and indirect talks are being considered with some of these organizations. It is likely that, with enough incentives, the OLF, ONLF, SLF and other "group rights first" groups could end up in the the same camp as EPRDF, in the next few years.

- Domestically, it possible EPRDF could attempt to a partial economic reform while retaining political control. It is public secret that EPRDF leaders are fond of the Chinese system and have repeatedly expressed their interest to emulate it. However, such a move would not help it recover politically, as it hopes, because, a) he Chinese were successful in their economic reform, because they were able to mobilize their people. The people were given economic incentives. The people were not abused or offended politically as the Woyanne did to the Ethiopian people. In other words, the Chinese never subjected their people to brutalities and series of political and economic humiliations as the Woyanne did. b) the Chinese have somehow managed to buy sufficient reservoir of people's goodwill with compensatory economic success, which the Woyanne can not replicate, both for lack of time and the bloody mess it created.

With these and similar developments in mind, it is easy to see that the future of unity, peace and democracy in our country is in serious danger. In particular, the double blow of further entrenchment of ethnicity as an organizing instrument of government structure and realignment of current organized political forces, are something that we all Ethiopians need to pause and reflect upon, and prepare ourselves for to confront head on. It is now that multinational parties of all stripes take measures to work together at the grass roots level to withstand and overwhelm the combined reaction of narrow focused forces in the coming years.

Dear TM,

I read your predictions. I respect it very much becuase it is well written and intellectual. To the least, you have given enough tought that the issue deserves.

I differ from you, though, in that you only mentioned just one side of the story. You may be right in mentioning that international observers might take time to cool off things before releasing their observations. But how about CUD and EUDF? How do you think they will react? Then, how about the publics reaction? Do you think the current masacare has scared the public out, or has angered it even more? Do you see any possibility of the public protesting again and then...?

TM,

Excellent prediction. I too think that's what is going to happen if we let them have their way. Thanks.


''Assuming the Woyanne declares itself the winner in the coming two to three weeks, the next five years could prove to be much more destructive and damaging to our country than the past 15 years.''{TM}

TM,

Astute prognostication. Any prognois on how the major opposition parties will act or react if NEB declares TPLF/EPRDF the winer as everyone expects?

What willbe the ramification of the such result upon the future of "democracy" in the next five years?

What would be the reaction of the 25 million electorates and the rest of the EThiopian majority's reacction?

Will TPLF govern as smoothely as you predicted?

Beheg-Amlack