Ethiopia: Both sides dig their heels in


Indian Ocean Newsletter
July 2nd 2005


Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is biding his time waiting for the opposition to split and end up accepting the election results giving a comfortable parliamentary majority to the EPRDF governing coalition. The discreet calls by certain western countries to hold a conference of all the Ethiopian political parties and set up a coalition government comprising the EPRDF and the main opposition forces would not seem to have convinced the government side.


Arched back. Meles Zenawi may certainly have given foreign diplomats the impression that he is open to the idea of a government in coalition with certain opposition leaders (ION 1140). However, resistance inside the EPRDF is far too strong for him to take the slightest initiative in this sense. The hardliners in the government camp are to be found among the losers in the 15 May election, such as the Minister for Information Bereket Simeon or the leader of the OPDO, Jineddin Sado, and also Sebhat Nega. Meles Zenawi himself is maintaining an aggressive line against the opposition, as is shown by his reply on 28 June to a letter sent him on 20 June by thirteen members of the United States Congress concerned about the situation in Ethiopia. In his reply, he accused the opposition of having tried to use the elections to stir up an "orange" revolution as in Ukraine and defended the repression ("in a firm but restrained and legal manner") of the opponents on 8 June. In the long term, the Ethiopian Prime Minister is banking on the opposition fragmenting and seems convinced that time is playing in his favour. To be sure, after the first period of turmoil, the majority of the opposition is coming round to accepting the election results presented by the National Electoral Board giving a large parliamentary majority to the EPRDF.


The opposition divided. The Prime Minister's gamble is far from absurd, for a substantial portion of the leaders of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) seem to be prepared to accept sharing power with the regime in one form or another. This stance is particularly driven by Berhanu Nega. During his recent visit to Brussels, he told expatriate Ethiopians "do not push to radicalise us. We want to work with the EPRDF". He has good relations with Bereket Simeon and has an echo in the United States, through Berahnu Mewa and Kiflu Tadesse. The radical stance of Hailu Shawel and Lidetu Ayalew (who want the regime to accept its election defeat) seems to be in a minority within the CUD. In fact, Lidetu Ayalew resigned from his post of spokesman of the CUD and his replacement, Hailu Araya (a Tigrayan) is notably a moderate. Within the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF, opposition), Beyene Petros is for the time being going it alone, stating that he wants to take up his seat as MP at any price whereas the grassroots activists seem to be more radical. However, in the UEDF as in the CUD, political realignments are to be expected in the coming weeks or months. The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) would, for its part, probably be prepared to take part in a national conference of all the parties and in a coalition government alongside the EPRDF, on the condition that new elections are held in the near future. But the OLF is staunchly attached to the ethnic regionalisation introduced by the EPRDF and on this issue is opposed to the CUD, which wants to go back on this reform.


Internal mediation. In addition to the diplomatic moves intended to find a peaceful solution the post-election crisis, internal mediation is at work between the EPRDF and the opposition. A committee of intellectuals has been set up for this purpose. In addition to the controversial founder of the Inter Africa Group, Abdul Mohamed Ababora, this committee comprises Kostentinos Berhe (a Tigrayan, close to the wife of Mesfin Welde Mariam), Berhane Gebrai (a Tigrayan who works at the ACP in Brussels), Bahru Zewde (an academic) and Netsanet Mengistu. The latter was a minister in the transition government but had been relieved of her functions a decade ago for having insisted that Eritrea pays for the coffee it imports from Ethiopia in dollars rather than in birrs.

Email: ethio1@yahoo.com

City: Addis ababa

Dear Ethiopian:
Meles does not have to wait the splitting of the oppositon. The day that CUD denied the right of nationalities and nations in Washington DC and appointed Haile Goshu and Negede Gobeze to be defacto leaders, that was the day that CUD lost to be the true representative of Ethiopian people. Therefore, Meles has only to hit the last nail on the coffin of the opposition party unless Beyene Betros is elected and leads the opposition to the right direction and usher Ethiopian to a country where multiparties, democracy and rule of law prevail.

Email: shirdons@yahoo.com

City: Washington DC

A MAJOR BLOW TO THE CUD & ITS LEADER, HAILU SHAWEL: SPLIT & DISSENT WITHN AEUP



What many political pundits of all color, who have been taking stock of the unexpected election victory of the CUD, have in unison predicted as the inevitable major post-election challenge of this hastily patched major opposition grouping, is political rift and subsequent split within the ranks of the leadership as well as within its member parties. Despite the repeated dismissal of all assertions, and the emphatic denial of all reliable information pertaining to such happenings, the CUD, has begun to face the harsh truth in the form of an avalanche: an avalanche that started with the removal of Ato Ledetu Ayalew last week, just followed by the emergence of a significant dissenting voice determined to put an end to the " dictatorial and undemocratic leadership of Ato Hailu & Co , and save the AEUP from its continuing slide to political oblivion", as publicly stated today in a press briefing given at the Ghion Hotel by senior AEUP leaders plus members drawn from different parts.



According to reliable sources close to the CUD office, many AEUP members are shaken: they have swarmed the office with a flood of calls seeking further info. Ato Hailu, and the CUD leadership around him, who have just been feeling happy for convincing Ato Lidetu accept a criticism for " committing an inappropriate act of expressing party differences publicly", were cut short from enjoying resolving the Lidetu dispute, according to the source, by the public display of such major dissent that they have tried to downplay and contain it hidden from the public.



Furthermore, and as a result, Hailu Shawel is poised to change the focus of his planned briefing of tomorrow: the planned focus of the briefing is the press briefing given by the PM last Friday. According to the source, Ato Hailu and the CUD leadership appear to have changed gear: their briefing is said to be focusing on " announcing the initiation of a pre-merger", whatever that means. The step appears to have been prompted by the challenge put to this agenda by the dissenting group in the AEUP, WHICH DESCRIBED it as an illegal maneuver by Hailu &Co at the expense of their party: and hence unacceptable.



Whether Ato Hailu will succeed, and whether Ato Lidetu would honor his an unofficial agreement to accept the criticism put toward him, given these new developments, appears to many very doubtful. The CUD is now faced with a deepening political crisis that has been simmering among the ranks of the leadership and member parties for long: and it is expected to keep on continuing further and wider.

How could anybody expect any less from a man who doesn’t have any regards for human life? Meles is going to do everything possible under the sun to stay in power by any means necessary.

If any of you believe Meles has taken a month to count the votes; he got you fooled. He will not rest unless he dismantles the opposition party. Meles and his cronies have stolen enough money to bribe lots of people. As they say: Money talks. Ibrahim and G/S are good examples.

May God/Allah protect Ethiopia from these evils.