In the Following Fifteen Days
(Modest Proposals for Days Ahead)

By Getachew Begashaw

The May 15, 2005 Ethiopian parliamentary election has widely exposed the fissures in the politics of the country between the opposition and the EPRDF regime in power. Despite many electoral constraints such as an unreformed and government-appointed National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), flawed and unfair election law, overzealous party hacks who killed and harassed the electorate, the Ethiopian people persevered and gave their verdict. The victory by CUD in Addis Ababa is a microcosm of the verdict of the people towards the ruling party. Feigning a dichotomy between a regime-supporting rural Ethiopia and the urban areas where the regime was clearly punished did not help. The lesson in Addis is: given a chance free from interference and witnessed by neutral observers, the regime is bound to lose in Ethiopia. In fact, based on available uncontaminated evidences, the EPRDF has lost in most polling stations in the country.

Sensing its defeat, the regime has prematurely and illegally declared a state of emergency banning demonstrations and public gatherings initially for one month that since is being continually renewed. Under the pretext of enforcing its ban, the murderous regime has killed numerous citizens in the capital, and jailed thousands. It is any body’s guess on the number of casualties in the countryside.

The election and the ensuing protest against the regime have ushered in two positive elements into the dynamics of Ethiopian opposition politics: (1) they have shown to the international community the dictatorial nature of the EPRDF regime which the West chose to turn a blind eye on in the past, and (2) have enhanced the solidarity of all Ethiopians inside and outside without being divided by political affiliation as in the past, and speaking in one voice for democracy and unity. Any political calculus for the future has to make sure that these hard-earned gains are not thrown away.

On the down side of the present political reality, the regime has succeeded to get the two major opposition parties, CUD and UEDF, to sign an agreement under duress in the presence of the EU and the US representatives. The agreement was purportedly needed to stabilize the country following the murderous rampage of the regime and to legally and peacefully bring to an end the contested election. Without delving into the details of the agreement, it is important to highlight the one main element that has a far-reaching consequence in abrogating the choice and aspirations of the Ethiopian electorate. That is both the regime and the two opposition groups have agreed the decision of the regime-appointed NEBE will be binding and final only with one last chance of appeal to the regime-appointed court. This is a considerable setback for the struggle, not only in the contents and terms of the agreement, but also in the fact that it allows the regime to buy time to doctor all the instruments of election and numbers.

The NEBE is charged with deciding which of the 299 contested polls are legitimate to recount or for a revote. It has already started favoring the ruling party by rejecting investigation inquiries from nearly half of those requested by the opposition. Furthermore, continuing in its unabashed proclivity to the regime, the NEBE has also started declaring the regime a victor in the various kilil parliaments, contrary to agreements to hold off its declarations until July 8, 2005.

To begin with, the formula of “recount or revote” is fraught with grave problems. How can one agree to a recount when the ballot boxes from May 15 to the present have been in the hands of the regime, and further, when there are irrefutable evidences that the regime’s officials have been tampering with them? Then, the other half of the remedy, re-vote, although better than its twin, cannot be fully relied on in the absence of the certification of its cleanliness by neutral observers. As it stands now, the agreement only stipulates that the neutral observers will “observe”, thus truncating their neutral power of denying or certifying the authenticity of the poll. The body charged with this august task is none other than the regime-appointed NEBE.

It is not difficult to make a rational conclusion that this agreement, overseen by the West, rather than solving the dilemma only postpones the problems to July 8 and beyond. EPRDF is bent on winning this election “by any means necessary”. The West knows well the result of the election; but they seem looking for an “honorable” way to extricate them from this tacky situation of offending a regime they have been patronizing to date. As unfortunate as it could be for them, they have only one dishonorable way they could do that: they can only invoke the infamous agreement signed under their auspices when EPRDF is declared the winner by the regime-appointed NEBE and to tell the opposition to accept their defeat and live with the parliamentary “gains” of 180 plus a few more seats.

This will not, and should not, abate the sizzling anger of the Ethiopian people. The Ethiopian people still know that they have been cheated. They are ready to defend their vote, what so ever the cost may be. Therefore, in order to avoid this potentially explosive and perilous scenario, it must be proposed that the following steps to be considered and to be acted on:

The opposition, specifically CUD and UEDF, should insist on revote, instead of recount, in all contested polling stations under the supervision of observers comprising the international community, the opposition, and the EPRDF.

In event of lack of agreement on the above recommendation and a probable high cost in terms of human lives and material resources emanating from confrontations, the opposition should creatively workout a transitional government formula that includes the EPRDF, but only limited to providing general social services (including national security and police protections) and facilitating a fair and free election in a time period not exceeding two years.

Presently, the regime and its supporters are falsely painting CUD as an “Amhara” party to sow doubts and suspicions among its supporters and to let the regime continue riding roughshod over the Ethiopian people. This has to be resolutely fought, especially by members of CUD’s partners, UEDF and other honest Ethiopians. Although one may have political differences with CUD over programmatic elements, it has to be understood that we have more than overlapping similarities in matters of democracy and the national unity. The ongoing defamation by the regime and its supporters is a prelude to a crime that the government is preparing to commit and it must be stopped immediately.


The democratic opposition, especially, the intellectuals and activists in the Diaspora, have a clear national duty and obligation to keep the momentum of the united struggle of the Ethiopian people for freedom, rule of law, and respect of human rights to continue. To effectuate this national obligation, networking through existing and emerging civic associations and parallel groups is imperative.


The West, who were instrumental in the signing of the infamous agreement of June 10, and who are the major benefactors of the ruling party, have to play a major role in endorsing recommendations (1) or (2) and set one of them in motion. With one of the two recommendations in motion, the Ethiopian people’s main demand of “counting their votes” will be respected, and it will be a true win-win situation for every one involved. At long last, the country will focus on effectively extricating itself from the shaming famine, strife, and humiliation that have symbolized her.

Were these ideas to fail due to EPRDF’s intransigence, the opposition will have no choice but to call the people to a full throttle of peaceful struggle in its various forms FOR TRUTH and JUSTICE TO PREVAIL.

The weyane crew did not know "true win-win" because they do not know what is Democratically loose is. They are only win-win to themselves. Do you know "NO" person? weyane is "The NO PERSON" itself. What do you expect for such "NO" person?

there is no point trying to get justice from the the fascist tyrant zenawi. he has already made up his mind how many seats he will allow the opposition in his parliament. The so called investigation which the treacherous fascist is talking about is only a smoke screen to deceive the the international community. The end result of this investigation has been decided and zenwai will come out on july 8th and say he has won. He will also tell the international community( EU observers) his election board has done the full invesrtigation and no irregularities were found.
The blood thirsy fascist delayed the vote counts in order to buy time to enable him to destroy evidence, to burn and to destroy ballot paper etc.

The only way the voice of the Ethiopian people can be heard is if the election is re-run in all the disputed areas in the presence of international observers. then zenawi has no where to hide.

This fascsit dictator should not be allowed to disregard the votes of the people and install himself on the back of the people only to totally decimate the country.

Those who contemplate sitting in a round table with zenawi to do business are playing with fire. if zenawi is given the reins, it will only mean the gallows for the opposition. the endless prison terms and torture.

In my opinion Meles scored a big poletical victory by making the opposition to sign the peace deal, where the opposition are more obliged than the government. After killing, imprisoning and torturing the opposition supporters and peaceful by standers the Woyannes coaxed the opposition to sign the peace deal. I think, here the opposition failled , they were supposed to protest, by every means, the marshial law. which was illigal even by the Woyanne's constitution. They were supposed to show us their leadership skill by being the first one to die, to be tortured or be imprisoned.
Don't you think we lost big one here? Everyone around the world knows after July 8 the opposition will instigate some kind of demonstration. EPRDF will kill more people and will put the opposition to be on the defensive. They will blame the oppostion for the death of the demonstrators, the opposition will keep on denying. that's the kind of poletics everyone exspects,
they will keep on shooting, imprisoning even the leaders and the world will not react except a few condemning here and there. Meles and his co will stay in power.
I don't know for how long the oppostion will keep on going to the EPRDF courts? I don't understand why they give legitimacy to a system that doesn't work? I know the leaders of the opposition are smart people, but I think, they are more acadmecian than political leaders.
To challenge the martial law peacefully,
right now, one of the leaders of the opposition must announce in the private media on certain day, at certain time, he will read a book at Meskel square for himself. thousands maybe millions will be there with their own books in a public park, there is no law that says you can not read your own book. ther is no law that control how loud you can read. Do you think the Agazi army will come with their tanks to kill all these people just because they are reading books in public park.
I think, the only way for the opposition to score big one poletically, is to challenge this government in every peaceful means, like Ghandi or Mandela to be at the for front to show the injustice, to be the first to experience. If you are afraid to do that, if you think this government will crush all kinds of peaceful demonstration, then there is no reason to wait for unfair justice. let's give up every thing and not a single one blood must flow in that land again , and let the fascist Woyanne rule us another whatever years with their iron feist.
The leaders of the opposition must understand that the Ethiopian people are behind them, they need leader. In history good leaders comes out at such time only, this is the time to see who will control the thermometer, otherwise you are history.

Email: trktaye@msn.com

A very insightful message. All I want to add or say is that the only way to remove Meles is by use of force. Any challenges that is made peacfully is always responeded by killing. Only when weak are partys allowed to have there say. People, let us raise arms and fight him. It will not take us long to remove him with the support we get from Ethiopians. Meles is a threat to a unified Ethiopia.

City: bermuda triangle

Dear Dr Getachew,
I support Ethiopias idea. Woyane came to power with Gun. I don't think we should remove them peacfully. we need to use force. We know We have the support of the majority of Ethiopian people. If we Fx. capture some kind of land from Gonder or somewhere else, the whole Ethiopian people join us. we just need a goog leadership. Just let us get weapeons and capture some kind of land. we will see the result
In my opininon , we will never remove the tyrant/Woyane peacfully
Regards
Dadi

Ethiopia and Dadi,

Has it occurred to you that the most effective form of struggle in Ethiopia over the last 50 years was the peaceful struggle that CUD and EUDF started. Do not call for Armed Struggle from USA. You go and start it in Ethiopia. Armed struggle starts with a gun in the hand not a hamburger dripping with mayonnaise and other goodies.

Let me cut it to pieces for you. CUD's and EUDF's decision to sign the agreement without any condition shows their maturity. It is a strike of genius. The only party that was not happy and tried to wiggle out of it was EPRDF under a lame pretext. Bereket said the boat is gone and the agreement was null and void.

CUD came back with a clarification that even sounded an apology and expressed their willingness to come to the table without any precondition. They said if anything that we have said in the past led any party to feel that we have violated the spirit of the agreement we withdraw the offending statement in public and express our readiness to come to the table without any precondition. The only party that was fuming mad by this was EPRDF. This is my reading and this is where Dr. Getachew's original message missed to grasp.

Mamo Qilo aka
Bula Geberdin aka
Cyber Bully

Email: mamoqilo@yahoo.com

Mamo Quilo,

I don't object to peacful struggle. I am talking about opening another front -armed struggle. If we fight him in all direction, we will achieve our objective one way or the other.
Meles , no matter how he appears to the outside world, is not likely to give power peacefully. It will be naive to think he will handover power when he losses. Look what is he doing now. He already terrorize, kill and jail people. Given time, his tyranny will snuff our peacful struggle everywhere and do irriversable damage to our country. However,Coordinated attack from all direction will speed and make his demise certain. Our country is in ethnic tension more than ever. It will be unwise not to use all viable means.
CUD succumbed under pressure which is a sign of weakness in the leadership. I am sure there action will have a negative impact on people's confidence in the party. It is a mistake to buckle under pressure.
If there is an organized resistance with good leadership, I wouldn't hesistate to fight this enemy here and in my country.

City: bermuda triangle

Ethiopia,

Thanks for your civil tone and respectful reply.

You wrote: "I don't object to peacful struggle. I am talking about opening another front -armed struggle."

I respond: That is fair, but we need to separate long term strategies from short term actions. Today we are focusing on how to capitalize on what the peaceful struggle of CUD and EUDF has gotten us. CUD and EUDF are doing their best to champion peaceful struggle. Meles and company are on the other hand are trying their best to suggest that CUD's and EUDF's movement is violent. The opposition need not serve as a weapon to Meles. Besides why call an armed struggle from the US. Often times armed struggles are announced well after they have been established and after they have reached some level where they can defend them selves.

More importantly, first, from a strategic point of view it is a bad choice, given the current world politics. Second, from a tactical point of view (discounting strategic considerations) your timing is bad.

You wrote: "Meles , no matter how he appears to the outside world, is not likely to give power peacefully. It will be naive to think he will handover power when he losses."

I respond: What makes have Meles pee on his pants is not a prospect of armed struggle. He knows how to deal with that. What has disarmed him is the peaceful struggle that CUD and EUDF have launched. Let us not complicate things on thier plans.

You wrote: "CUD succumbed under pressure which is a sign of weakness in the leadership."

I respond: CUD's decision to sign the agreement was a sign of political maturity and acumen. It is Meles who did not want to sign the agreement who succumbed to US and EU pressure.

Mamo Qilo aka
Bula Geberdin aka
Cyber Bully

Email: mamoqilo@yahoo.com