NEBE has announced that it is investigating 200 constituencies after rejecting 99 of them. It has acknowledged that recount or re-vote may take place in as much as 200 constituencies (DW radio, June 18). The next issue then should be how the opposition could overcome the escalating threat harassment and intimidation of voters every where. The leadership capacity of CUD has also been and still is under serious attack so much so that its capacity has been seriously undermined. I then wonder whether the next best shot for EPRDF/NEBE could be ordering re vote immediately in a situation much worse than before.

As far as I could tell, the objective of the massive killing and harassment is much more to pave the way for the ultimate revote that EPRDF is very well aware that it is going to come than maintaining teh announced "provisional" results, as they know the theft they committed was too obvious to cover. Who would know better as to how a theft was made than the thief himself?

So, we should expect revote very soon in a situation where the country is under siege by EPRDF military, Leadership of opposition incapacitated, public media under absolute control by the ruling party and a feeling of eminent dooms day. Opposition needs to bring together every means at its disposal and concentrate on filling the above gaps and mobilize every bit of its resources (human and financial) towards this end.

Do you think it is a wishful thinking? I don’t think so. Re-vote and emerging victorious from it is the only face/neck saving tool that Meles can dream to save him from the embarrassment he is facing from the international community. Of course, he never cared about the people he leads.

Email: jaduethio@yahoo.com

City: DC area

That could be the beginning of the worest!!!
God is also there to give justices.

Jadu,

This is a possibility in at leas some areas. But I doubt that it would be in all 200. What Meles would instruct NEBE is to make sure their actions would not give the opposition the majority. The share may go from 60/40 in favor of EPRDF to say 55/45 or even 52/48 still in favor of EPRDF.

As I said in an earlier message, the political apparatus and its state security are used to protect TPLF's economic enterprises that are now worth close to a billion US dollar. TPLF criminals know that losing the political mantle lends itself to exposing the economic crimes that TPLF has been committing. So, for Meles and his criminal enterprise this is not something it would accept.

The international community, particularly those who are at the forefront of fighting international terrorism (US and UK), would like to see Meles in office and would use their power to force the opposition to accept any concession from Meles, such as 52/48 split. Why do the US and UK bent on supporting Meles? Because Meles has outsmarted the opposition 100 to 0 when it comes to international public relations. Meles has convinced the US and the UK governments that he is their man to fight terrorism. At the very least he has assured them that he would make sure the horn would not be a hotbed for terrorists. That is why he gets into Somalia once every three or four months to wipe out alleged terrorist cells. He has convinced UK and US that if the opposition takes power they will destabilize the country by starting war with Eritrea and also by radically changing the constitution. And the opposition seems to act on the very scripts that Meles had written for them, like an eternal fool would. That was why I suggested the opposition should assure the US and UK that it would not do such foolish acts. This is not only to assure the US and UK, but this is also something that makes absolute sense.

So what should the opposition do? Learn international politics and do it well. Hire international PR firms and let them do their thing. At the end never accept anything less than what the vote of the people has given it.

Mamo Qilo

Jadu,

I left out one point. The opposition should prepare itself for possible re run election in some districts, but it must insist that international observers shouls be present in all the contested areas. Do not do it unless it is fully supervised.

And when it comes to international pressure, tell them they will not accept anything short of the will of the people. Play a smart but firm politics.

One mistake of the oppositio is that they seem to rule out Ethiopians in the diaspora. I agree that the diaspora cannot be the main force. All the struggle should be done from within and leadership should come from inside. But it is important to have a strong support in the US and Europe. I think that s a critical element in terms of lobbying and defeating Meles's ploy at the international front.

Mamo Jilajilu

Mamo Qilo,

It seems convincing that one need to gain strong support from EU and US in order to make any significant gain in the political landscape of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, is this the way toward true democracy? If you flip the coin and ask, “What is the true interest of US and EU in Ethiopia?” you will soon find that the EU or US do not have any direct interest in the region. Nevertheless, a fable Ethiopia has always been in their interest to control the black continent in general and the gateway of red sea in particular. The notion of “fight terrorism” is simply one of the myths invented to keep your energy in the wrong side of the coin while they shape your destine in their own benefit.

If the opposition group in Ethiopia gain power by pleasing the US and EU, there is nothing beneficiary to the people of Ethiopia, be in economically or socially. However, if they gain power by convincing the true democratic citizens of the world, the struggle will eventually generate an everlasting peace, progress, and meaningful democracy.

Human

Human,

You asked the right question and even gave the right answer halfway through. You asked: “What is the true interest of US and EU in Ethiopia?”. And answered that that the EU or US do not have any direct interest in the region. This much we agree. I must add the only thing that interests them is to avoid Ethiopia from collapsing ala Somalia or to some degree ala Eritrea.

Then you went further and got into conspiracy theory which I said earlier explains every thing while explaining nothing. You wrote: "a fable Ethiopia has always been in their interest to control the black continent in general and the gateway of red sea in particular."

Two minor issue you may have missed. First we are fible on our own. The last time I checked, the Red Sea is not in our cotrol. If they want to control Red Sea thay can control Eritrea, by arming, feeding and clothing them. What I find almost comical is your assertion that they like to control the black continent by controlling Ethiopia. First, you do not need to focus your energy on the poorest country in the continent, if controlling Africa is your intention. There are oter countries that are endowed with more natural and human resources and that are militarily 10 times stronger than Ethiopia.

You wrote: "The notion of “fight terrorism” is simply one of the myths invented to keep your energy in the wrong side of the coin while they shape your destine in their own benefit." This may make us all feel good and give us a false pretense of importance. But it means nothing worthy of its salt.

Human says: "If the opposition group in Ethiopia gain power by pleasing the US and EU, there is nothing beneficiary to the people of Ethiopia, be in economically or socially."

This is interesting. I tell you that it does not matter how the opposition gets to power. Its focus should be to get to power. I can bet you it would do better than Meles.

Your further wrote: "However, if they gain power by convincing the true democratic citizens of the world, the struggle will eventually generate an everlasting peace, progress, and meaningful democracy." Now you are back into your universal truth kind of pie in the sky story. Besides, why would the two be mutually exclusive, that is getting to power using the US and EU and at the same time stretching our hands to the more abstract democratic citizens of the world. By the way who are they? And what interest and power/means do they have to help us.

Mamo Qilo

Yes, the opposition needs to mobilize all its resources. The diaspora are at least far from the reaches of the killers and intimidators. They could be quite a force. A more non convenetional means of amassing the support of the diaspora needs to be sought. I am particularly convinced that the oppositon is not tapping the capacity of the younger generation of the diaspora as much as it should. Bringing younger faces in to the leadership could be very helpful in this regard. It is worth to note that it is the younger generation in Ethiopia which is the force behind the opposition. It is imporatant that we exploit the gathering momentum.

The PR gap is worrisome too. A clear plan of action answering:(what,how, when, who and where)needs to be developed on this issue and put in to action ASAP. Again the diaspora can have a big role there, if handled systematically and aggressively. .

Email: jaduethio@yahoo.com

City: DC area

The oppositions are definitely ready.

Mamo Qilo,

I must say that I enjoy your writing because you keep flip/flopping my ideas. From the points you agree to my conspiracy theory and my universal truth that seems to point no meaning to your expedition!

Well, in regard to the red sea and who controls it, I don’t think I need to argue much. Control does not mean arming and seating by the sea. That would be the most impractical and expensive thing to do. The best and effective way of controlling a given region is by going to its deepest root possible. You may wish Eritrea to be some sort of isolated planet that has nothing to do with the regional politics but my friend, there is nothing isolated in this world. Go deep diving beyond what your eyes see and you will discover that how much the politics of the entire region called “horn of Africa” and Africa at large is solidly intertwined. Your assertion of controlling red sea by controlling Eritrea is as if one can control East China Sea by arming and feeding Taiwan. Waw…that is ignoring a billion people next door!

Your argument about Africa is also a bit immature. Again, you kept on talking about natural resources and stronger armed groups than Ethiopia. Ask yourself, “What is really slaughtering the souls of African people?” I would say discrimination and political corruption as the primary cancer in the continent. So, to come back to my points, Ethiopia being a political meeting point for the continent’s political frameworks, she is much more vulnerable to external political powers that wish to keep Africa for their own benefit. I am not talking about Ethiopian people but the political structure of the country. Ethiopia is the only country not colonized by these powers but it is the weakest nation with mental slavery that is serving mostly the interest of the power players than the people of Africa. You may disagree or agree but the fact is as clear as blue sky to an intelligent mind.

Your last but not least point about my abstract democratic citizens of the world, as you labeled it, makes me wander how you perceive “democracy” and its implication. If any opposition groups get ahead being POWER HUNGRY, the outcome is glued to be the same as those in power at present because they will again do anything to keep their power by serving the interest of external power sources. However, if the opposition group make a move to the political arena with true dignity, wisdom, and know-how, they will create the room for a democratic culture since their energy does not focus on power holding. This is the most difficult part most leaders seem to escape. A man who craves for power does not do any good for the welfare of the people. And please do not just declare this as my “universal truth kind of pie in the sky story”. I mean try to learn by way of relations of ideas and I hope you do!


Human

Yes oppositions are ready but what about Neguise, Tulu and the rest of EPDRF ready for the defeat? Hope so. This will be the time for GOD not for our comment. Let the Lord of GOD help innocent Ethiopian people.

Most of you just one sided party which is CUD, guys U.S. and EU have fundamental question about CUD, but none of you really address it even Mamo the most out spoken person in this forum. U.S. and EU are believed CUD only belong to Amahra,which does not represent all Ethiopians this is the most critical question none of hadn't accepted it. They have fear the worst is coming. what’s the different between TPLF and CUD they are all in the same page guys. CUD must change it’s infrastructures in order to have trust from western countries.

Email: kerfafa@hotmail.com

City: Gojjam

Lema,

You got it right the US and EU are not sure what to expect from CUD. More importantly if you look at the issues they run on, including question of nationality, Assab, the US and Eu have ground to fear that CUD may distabilize the horn by radically revising the constitution and laso by attacking Eritrea.

CUD needs to assure the US and EU that it wil not revise the constitution except in one area and that is to liberalize land and other economic areas. It should assure both the local and international community that the next five years would be time for stability.

But you are dead wrong to clain the CUD is an Amhara party. Go read the names of the people who won in Addis, you would find Amhara, Oromo, Tigray, Gurage, etc. The problem here is that CUD has not done enough PR campain to make this clear to the international community.

Mamo Qilo

Lema said,

“CUD must change it’s infrastructures in order to have trust from western countries.”

This is what I mean by mental slavery. Why should Ethiopian Opposition Party change its infrastructure in order to have trust from western countries? Why do we have to submit everything to western power? The U.S. and EU make such statement in order to purify their image (in the world media) of supporting the present regime with its experiment on unexamined damaging ethnic based politics.

To tell you the truth, the US and EU would support CUD if it is in fact an Amhara party. In other words, what they are saying is what they actually desire.

I say be honest to yourself not to what other wish you to be!

Human

Human,

You must be a native of Nirvana land. On this side of planet Mars, the US rules, learn to deal with them and better yet, get what you want out of them playing their own games. That is not mental slavery that is playing the principles of Judo in politics. Use their weight to your benefit.

Mamo Qilo

Dear Mamo Qilo,

It has been over a century since our fathers played the principles of Judo as you very well said. However, please look where our father’s deeds brought us. A nation with a never-ending begging bowl! That is what we are best known throughout the four corners of the world. Even an aborigine man knows our tragedy in relation to the mighty powers. Don’t you think it is time to weigh up our own capacity and resources for progress? When do we learn to feed ourselves and lead a healthy life? Why are you so obsessed with power? Could it be because of your traditional background? After all, our ancestor’s history is all about being the king of kings, absolute monarchy, and so on.

But they brought us nothing but an endless misery. Let us keep that in the museum and break the chain of our father’s mischief. So, I really don’t desire to play anyone’s game until at least I am sufficient enough to sustain my basic needs. Countries play games not to secure their food sources but that of their pocket money, which is a fair game.

Human

The last time some one pushed this view Tanzania declared Arusha, the rest is history.

The issue is not paying the game of Judo, but playing it right.

Mamo Qilo

I wish for some kind of sunami to come and bull doze those people with weak mind who think nothing but power! you people must be ashmed of being a slave of this trend called lobby! please think of your own people than pleasing foreign power who think nothing but bleeding us. The question, "What shall I do to please eu and Amerika"? is sicking me.What is soverienty if you cant write your own foriegn and economic policy and respond your people's agenda?.

Are these the leaders you wish to lobby?

Have a look below:

http://www.foulds2000.freeserve.co.uk/bushv6.htm

Beza Beza,

Short of the Tsunami there is one thing you can do. I am 100s of miles away from any waterfront. May be the easiest way to wipe me out is with logical argument. Try to do that than to sit and pray for a Tsunami to hit people like me. What economic sovereignty are you talking about when half of your economy is degumed (an Amharic word for subsidized) by foreign powers? What economic sovereignty is Beze Beza talking about when day and night we are praying for foreigners to come and invest in our land.

I bet you live in the US or UK depending on their economic system. The only thing you do not want is for US to export its influence in Ethiopia. Who cares if the poor in Ethiopia suffer as long as you can get all your brothers and sisters out of the miserable soil? Then you talk about independence both in thinking and in policy. That is crap. I still do not wish you to be hit by a tsunami. I hope you will be enlightened one day.

Mamo Qilo

PS: Human I looked at the leaders that we need to lobby. You are right they are the leaders we should suck up to.

Human,

I am glad that you enjoy reading my postings. I must also admit that I enjoy reading you. But I must be honest with you that I really think of you as a native of Nirvanaseville.

I like your argument that read: "Well, in regard to the red sea and who controls it, ... Control does not mean arming and seating by the sea. That would be the most impractical and expensive thing to do. The best and effective way of controlling a given region is by going to its deepest root possible." To begin with this assume Red see is of strategic importance to the US. It used to be a strategic location in the 70s. In the 80s the US Pentagon concluded that there is no military strategic importance for the US. If you can establish that Red Sea is a strategic importance to the US, Isayas will award you a Medal and may be even a million dollar. What puzzled him is how come no one thinks Red sea is important other than Ethiopians. If Red sea is of strategic importance to the US, then the cheapest way to control would be to send a few hundred Marines. That is all. You do not need to go deep into the hinterland nor do you need to dive deep beyond eyes can see. My brother while you are diving deep, the answer is floating in the open air.

You wrote: "You may wish Eritrea to be some sort of isolated planet that has nothing to do with the regional politics but my friend, there is nothing isolated in this world." This is a point that Isayas has been trying to prove. That Eritrea is not an isolated miserable place. That it is important and significant for the horn, yada yada yada. He has found no taker. Your comparison of Taiwan with Eritrea and China with Ethiopia is going a bit too far in Nirvana land.

You told me to ask myself “What is really slaughtering the souls of African people?” My answer is poverty and corruption. There ain’t discrimination to speak of really. Your answer that "Ethiopia being a political meeting point for the continent’s political frameworks, she is much more vulnerable to external political powers that wish to keep Africa for their own benefit." As an Ethiopian I am inclined to accept this as valid. But my mind keeps reminding me that not to give in to such self-delusion. There is some part of me that nudges me to accept your suggestion, except for my brain. It keeps telling me cut this crap. I am afraid I must heed to my brain.

You concluded by saying that "A man who craves for power does not do any good for the welfare of the people. And please do not just declare this as my “universal truth kind of pie in the sky story”.

Human, first let us get rid of EPRDF and get to power by whatever means necessary. We will have time to talk about the relationship between power, welfare and universal truth. Until then if you are an American citizen, register as a Republican and call your representative.

Mamo Qilo

Mamo Qilo,

Well, you can keep on lobbying and wasting your energy for nothing. For me, a letter from a congressman or a criticizing report from state dep. do not have much impact in Ethiopian’s internal politics. Recently, I heard a professor speaking about Ethiopia over a radio. He pointed out how impossible it is to know the truth when it comes to Ethiopian political life. He said, “Each side will convince you that his/her story is the only true one" Yes, this is how most “ferenje” see Ethiopia and whatever pressure you may put, it will be counter balanced by other statement as usual.

In regard to your power struggle and getting rid of EPRDF, I will again point ask, “what is your intention? To get rid of your rival or to established a democratic process by sharing a table with your opponent?”

Human

Mamo Qilo, I didnt know that your are well informed about our country's miserable situation. Congrajualtions! But what are you going to do to break this cicle of shame? there must be other way than begging for eternity. If you start thinking and working logical perhaps you will find an answer. good luck.