Dear all,

As you well know, I have used "My Repulican Friends Told Me So" as a title three times before. In all cases the story has proven to be right. The last one was about Ana Gobez's repot, regarding the fact that it was shared with the US government ahead of time and the fact that the US government was in general agreemnt. I told you that the US governement would take a rather measured stand. According to my trusted republican friends, "the us government does not want to make the government any more reclusive than it already is and not to embolden the opposition more than it already in" The stry I told you was that the US would take a neutral stanf and force the two sides to reach a compromise. The recent White House Press Realease born this out.

I am now told tha the US has told Meles and company to work out a compromise. Both the US and EU are pressing Meles to accet the joint proposal by CUD and UEDF. This much is what my republican friends told me. I told them in return that the day Meles accepts the joint CUD/UEDF proposal is the begining of the end of his dictatorship.

Joro Tebi aka
Ankasa Doro aka
Sebara Kirar aka
Mamo Qilo

Dear Mamo,

Taking you by your words, it seems the dawn of a bright era seems approaching. The compromise that you heard about, I think, could at the best be the formation of an interim/unity government as suggested by the opposition. But, given the big rift between the opposition and the EPRDF, how do you see the possibility of the two working in acceptable harmony to establish a long lasting democratic system in the nation? Their seemingly irreconcilable differences in many important national issues worry me a lot.

Liku,

The day a joint intrim government is formed you would see many of the TELTAFI parites runing away from TPLF looking for cover. Meles would be served.

I do not think Meles would agree to this. There are two reasons. First is that it would signal weakness on hsi part and this leads to an emboldened opposition and a fracturing EPRDF. Self servival would kick in and many of the TeleTafi's would jump ships. Second, is that he knows that this would lead in total rejection and defeat in the next election. As I said in the past the politcal mantle is used to legitimize his looting establishment and keep a sustained looting machinery. Meles is served any which way you look at it! Poor thing!

Yilma, you are unusually quite. Please do not take MEles recent order not to antagoinze the opposition too literally. You should be able to share your view. Should yo not? Gebrefenafent is busy in Coloroado arranging his apartment's party room for TPLF Leqso. Are you taking care of California? Let us know if you need help.

Ankasa Doro aka
Joro Tebi aka
Sebara Kirar aka
etc

Mamo,

It is logical to think that agreeing to the formation of an interim government would mean a big blow to EPRDF. One can also imagine the likelihood of its subsequent fracturing as a result of frustration and escape seeking of its members. So, it is difficult to imagine that Meles would succumb to such a deal.

What has he then as alternatives, if the push from EU and US persists? Would he insist on clinging to power whatsoever that might cost him? Would he flee? Or, would he perform some unpredicted political acrobatics?

Just another question: what do you think could be the impact of the current impasse in the Ethio-Eritrea border dispute be in relation to the formation of the future government?

Liku,

A goddammened Kazakistan teenager is keeping me all night long. Some weeks ago I posted on one of the meanest hackers website cahllenging hackers to try to break into my system. Some god****ed 14 years old from Kazakistan and a 20 years old Indian broke into my system, within hours. I was able to fend off the Indian attack. But the stupid Kazakistan is playing numbers on me. To top it off, he sent me a message telling me I am 5 to 10 years behind his compatriots in Kazakistan and Russia. His Name Yuri2010, to tell me that he is 5 years ahad. I am playing hide and seek with him trying to regain my dignity or finding a way to protect my computer. That was the day I picked Yegemel Chira as a screen name. As you know Yegemel Chira cannot even cover its behind. I am trying to do that but so far to no avail. I did not want to change my computer, pin number, email account to run away from the stupid Kazakistan.

In any case here I am up until 4:00 AM trying to learn a trick or two from my tormentor, who boasts that he can walk in and out of my firewall at will.

In any case, you ask interesting and difficult questions. The simplest and probably the easiest answer is that any thing is possible. The situation is such that it is hard to tell if accident or logic will dictate our future path.

You are correct in that agreeing to the formation of an interim government would mean a big blow to EPRDF, particularly to Meles. He will be seen as a weak and wunded lame duck both by the opposition and his own party and coalition. Hence the emboldenment of the opposition and t fracturing of EPRDF. Yes, it is difficult to imagine that Meles would succumb to such a deal. But Meles is playing with a week hand. As a poker game would dictate yu have to pretent you have more cards than you are actually playing with. Huffing and bluffing is his primary weapon until his bluffig is called off.

You asked: "What has he then as alternatives, if the push from EU and US persists? Would he insist on clinging to power whatsoever that might cost him? Would he flee? Or, would he perform some unpredicted political acrobatics?"

My first instinct is that Meles would be sucked. If his comrades fail to do that they will face the fate of Mengistu's leutenants. But the realist in me tells me that Meles has gotten rid off all his leutenants that had any backbone to challenge him (Sye Abraha and Hailom, for example). The remaining are short on spines bones. I think fleeing is a real possibility when the going gets tough. Meles as you know is not known for his bravery. He was never a respected fighter in TPLF. Actually at some point he was court marshalled after he abandened his armey and run. That costed TPLF many of its brave fighters. He was sentensed but later forgiven after Isayas intervened on his behalf. I do not think he has much more room to do any acrobatics that would save his behind. May be I should lend him my nick name Yegemel Chira or Sebare Kirar.

Regarding on your question on Eritrea. I think we shoud totally ignore Eritrea. Leave it as an impass. Totally ignore it. Let them seffer on thier own hands. They do not need help at this stage.

Ankasa Doro

Mamo,

I like your nickname - Yegemel Chira, but I shall keep on calling you Mamo. I hope you will somehow get out of the plot of the computer pirates.

With the hope that the New Ethiopian Year would bring with it a new chapter in the democratization of our home country, I wish you and your loved ones a happy and successful new year. Keep up with the e-war. I have no doubt that the side with the truth will triumph soon.

Selam to all

Mamo,

You are genius; me in California, and working for Meles? WOW!! No wonder you and your Maoist buddies are every where but to no where! You goof again,-big time I must add.

After your customary demagoguery and empty bravado, forgive my French accent today, what you said about “Eritrea” is a wise approach for now. If this issue resurfaces and takes center stage again, in due time it should, it can only be framed within the interest of those communities who were forcefully separated without democratic process. Furthermore, Badme can only be resolved democratically as part of the bigger communities who suffered forceful separation since 1993. Who needs Asmara, if Hammasen does not want to be ethiopian?

With love.

Brilliant analysis of Meles's behaviour Mamo!

My prediction is also similar to what you have mentioned plus the following.

He will try very hard to play the ethnic card that may work for sometime.I called my sis in Diredawa to hear about the public meeting that was called by the CUD.

She told me there was a fight between the Oromos and the CUD supporters about the music that was being played on the public gathering.The oromos wanted to hear Oromo songs not Amarigna.There was a fight the police had to intervene.Some ppl were admited with injuries to the hospital.It was gov't organized as I have heard it from Eng. Gizachew on the DW Radio.

He may try to creat a havoc to convince the Americans to bless his gov't in order to maintain stability in that sensitive part of Africa that seams to be very important for the americans in their global startegy against terrorism.

May be I underestimate the ppl of Ethiopia.I realy do not know.

Nega? Alnegam???

City: Waterloo

Mamo,

I say you are very much correct on your analysis. Meles does not have any other way except the way OUT. He will probably take Bereket with him. Addisu, Seyoum and others will represent EPRDF on the new interim government, but like you said EPRDF as EPRDF will cease to exist. OPDM may try to join hands with other parties like OFDM, ANDM may covert itself to a multinaional party and TPLF will simply be that. All these, howvere, is to no avail as non of them have any mass support whatsoever.

But it is not only EPRDF which is possed to disintegrate. EUDF was formed on the minimum program of getting rid of EPRDF. Once that mission is acomplished, their will be nothing to hold the union in unity. EPRP and MEISON ( once they get their visa for back home) would simply go there own way. It is probable though that Dr. Merera's , Dr. Beyene's and Aregawi Berhe's parties form a coalition. ( I wish they join with CUD). CUD will emerge out to be the strongest party with a little challenge from EPRP, MEISON, OLF, etc.

Hi Mamo,

I don't think things are going to turn-out as easlly as that. I don't think Meles and co are going to share any power with anyone and also the opposition for what ever reason are silent.

Meles & Co, not only they run the coutry they also own it, they are the law of the land, the solders, the press, the church, the hospital, educational establishment, the air line, I don't think they are going to let any other ethnic person to join the party.

Opposition or no opposition parties the people of Ethiopia had enough of Meles and his mad dogs. I feel for all the people who were killed, wounded and attacked since the election. I hope and pray god will help us to get out of this in peac.

I wish all you guys a happy new year, and hope it will bring us a peacful and democratic ethiopia.

Love Ethiopia

City: AA

Dear Mamo, I kind of fall in love with your republican friends' way of thinking. One thing for sure though, Meles has no quality in his character to trust others, with different views and perspectives. So, the idea of forming an interim govenment with the opposition party members, is for sure a nightmare that will send him to the corner. Well, we will see!


May God bless the Great Ethiopia and its people!!!

Dear all,

Thank you all for the good wishes. I am glad to tell you that after 72 hours of Research (with only 6 hours of sleep in the last three days) I was able to get the Kazakistan teenager blocked, at least for now. The b@stard was able to steal all my incoming email for the last two weeks. He told me to send him email asking him "to please send me my email." My Ethiopian blood refused to succumb. But I must tell you the b@stard is unbelievable. At 14 he could make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year working for computer security firms.

...............

Yilma,

You can say what yu may, but when it came to political analysis, I delivered yu lifeless in a NY second. Thanks for your compliments about my take of the Eritrean reality. If you were as objective with my analysis of Meles, you would have seen the merits of my analysis there as well.

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Dear Alnegam Lelitu,

Thank you for the nice words. I totally agree with you that Meles will try to convince Americans that he is their man. He may even kill 10 Somalis or 20 and claim that they were Al-Qaidas. I have been writing for a long time that CUD/UEDF need to learn to suck up to the Americans and present themselves as better than Meles in terms of defending the American interest. Some of our fundamentalist *** Taliban Ethiopians attacked me for selling the dignity of Ethiopia bla bla bla crapp.

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Kinikit,

Thank you for all the nice words. You are making Yilma and Ali jelous. I agree with you that it is not only EPRDF which is possed to disintegrate. EUDF was formed on the minimum program of getting rid of EPRDF. Once that mission is acomplished, their will be nothing to hold the union in unity. I take it one step further, you would also see reallignemnt within CUD. For now TPLF is the glue that is holding it together. Viva TPLF and Meles you are the fodder that kept the flame burning. You are the glue that have kept us more united than before. The strength of the opposition s built on the weakness of EPRDF. It used to be the other way around. The pendullum has swang in the other direction. Let the tribal bandits fume. Happy sinking to them.

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Mina and Say-no-to-hatred,

You are two chaps I always read on a regular basis. The respect is mututal. God bless. Happy new year to all the friends of Ethiopia. And happy sinking for her tormentors.

Ankasa Doro aka
Sebara Kirar aka
Cyber Bully aka
Thomas Sibago aka
etc

Poor Mamo!

Happy New Year anyway!

Yilma,

Happy New Year to you too. Gebrelekusus happy sinking for you.

Ankasa Doro